It also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said.Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. Scientists say a slightly delayed onset over Kerala does not mean that the monsoon will reach other parts of the country late. In mid-May, the IMD said monsoon might arrive in Kerala by June 4.Skymet had predicted the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 7 with an error margin of three days.The southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats," Skymet Weather had said on Tuesday.The southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days. Though the criteria for monsoon onset can be met in the next two days, it will not be a thumping start," Mahesh Palawat, vice president (climate and meteorology), Skymet Weather, said.Īfter the onset over Kerala, the monsoon will remain "weak" until the storm degenerates around June 12, he said."The powerful weather system in the Arabian Sea may spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. However, further progress of the monsoon beyond the southern peninsula will happen after the cyclone degenerates."The cloud mass is concentrated around this system and enough moisture is not reaching the Kerala coast.
The Arabian Sea used to be cool, but now it is a warm pool,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author.The IMD had on Tuesday said the cyclone is likely to influence the monsoon progress.Ī senior IMD scientist said the southern peninsula will get rain under the influence of the cyclonic storm and a low-pressure system developing in the Bay of Bengal. According to a study ‘Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean', the Arabian Sea saw a significant increasing trend in the intensity, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms and very severe cyclonic storms during the 1982–2019 period."The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is tightly linked to the rising ocean temperatures and increased availability of moisture under global warming.
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